Muscatine

Rasmussen is the only proven accurate poll.  It would be their Presidential Tracking Poll in this case.

Interesting. I responded to gta1 regarding polling and it is hiroad who responds with the information as to which tracking poll was being referred to. Are gta1 and hiroad related so that hiroad knows what gta1 is referring to or do we have a case of multiple userid's?Not trying to be accusatory, just asking a question.

With regards to the tracking polls, though, I'm not sure what you mean by "proven accurate." By going back and looking at the data, it appears as if there are other pollsters who were more accurate in their predictions. For instance, in the 2008 presidential election, Rasmussen's final prediction was Obama 52, McCain 46 on 11/3. They were pretty close as the final results were Obama 53 (52.9), McCain 46 (45.7). But there were others who were just as close or closer. For instance, Pew had the same prediction (52, 46) on 11/1. And ARG had it Obama 53, McCain 45 on 11/3. Just as close. Then there were two pollsters who actually nailed it. Both CNN and the IPSOS/McClatchy polls had it exactly right (53, 46) on 11/1.

Furthermore, when looking at Rasmussen's daily tracking of the primaries, they didn't have McCain leading Huckabee until the middle of January and they had Clinton winning the Democratic nomination until almost Valentine's Day and then regaining the lead again two different times in March. Naturally, their final results showed the eventual winners being favored, but by that time it was really a foregone conclusion.

So... Since a poll's accuracy can only be determined in hindsight, I'm not sure where your claim of "Rasmussen is the only proven accurate poll" comes from. They have certainly been one of the better pollster recently, but I don't know that I would call them "the only proven accurate poll."

I neither know, nor am I, gta1.

I misspoke.  I should have said Rasmussen "is the most accurate", not "the only proven accurate poll".  I don't know, for sure about the only proven accurate statement.  So far, I haven't seen much proof of total accuracy over the long run (years) from any of the other polls you mentioned.    But here is what is important:

(from a Fordham University recent study -  :Initial Report, November 5, 2008-

For all the derision directed toward pre-election polling, the final poll estimates were not far off from the actual nationwide voteshares for the two candidates. On average, preelection polls from 23 public polling organizations projected a Democratic advantage of 7.52 percentage points on Election Day, which is only about 1.37 percentage points away from the current estimate of a 6.15-point Obama margin in the national popular vote.

Following the procedures proposed by Martin, Traugott and Kennedy (see Public Opinion Quarterly, Fall 2006, pp. 342-369) to assess poll accuracy, I analyze poll estimates from these 23 polling organizations. Four of these polls appear to have overestimated McCain support (indicated with a * below), while most polls (17) overestimated Obama strength.

Pre-election projections for two organizations' final polls-Rasmussen and Pew-were perfectly in agreement with the actual election result (**).

The following list ranks the 23 organizations by the accuracy of their final, national preelection polls (as reported on pollster.com).

1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**

1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**

2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)

3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)

4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*

5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*

5. ARG (10/25-27)*

6. CNN (10/30-11/1)

6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)

7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)

8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)

9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)

10. FOX (11/1-2)

11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)

12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)

13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)

14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)

15. Marist College (11/3)

16. CBS (10/31-11/2)

17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)

18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)

19. CBS/Times (10/25-29)

20. Newsweek (10/22-23)

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check these out

emergency war powers, war powers act