Muscatine

Ideology versus Competence: Janet Napolitano

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  • gta1
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JOS,i put out something i thought was interesting for ANYONE to respond to. Anyone has a right to add thier input to anything posted here. So no need to bash on Hiroad for adding his input.

JOS,i put out something i thought was interesting for ANYONE to respond to. Anyone has a right to add thier input to anything posted here. So no need to bash on Hiroad for adding his input.

Don't get your undies in a bunch, gta1. Unlike hiroad, I wasn't bashing anyone. I was just asking questions.

 

I should have said Rasmussen "is the most accurate", not "the only proven accurate poll".  I don't know, for sure about the only proven accurate statement.  So far, I haven't seen much proof of total accuracy over the long run (years) from any of the other polls you mentioned.    But here is what is important:

(from a Fordham University recent study -  :Initial Report, November 5, 2008-

Costas Panagopoulos, Ph.D., Department of Political Science

 

"Poll Accuracy in the 2008 Presidential Election

 

hiroad,

I saw this as well, but notice the date is November 5, 2009, the day after the election. There were still outstanding ballots (provisionals, absentee, etc.) to be counted. As I said before, ARG and CNN (who are ranked lower on this intitial list) ended up more accurate than Rasmussen once everything was said and done. You can rely on Rasmussen if you want, I'm just pointing out that there are others who have been more accurate.

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  • hiroad
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Not over the long haul.  By the way, I see no documentation for your claim that ARG and CNN "ended up" more accurate on this one poll than Rasmussen.   I am able to get data that shows that Rasmussen is more accurate more times.

Not over the long haul.  By the way, I see no documentation for your claim that ARG and CNN "ended up" more accurate on this one poll than Rasmussen.   I am able to get data that shows that Rasmussen is more accurate more times.

If you look at the link for pollster.com I provided in my previous post and go down the list of tracking polls you'll see that the last results from IPSOS/McClatchy and CNN were 53-46 Obama. But, I assume your disputing the final tally of 53-46, right? That came directly from the Federal Election Commission's official report (PDF file) on 1/22/2009 showing McCain at 45.66% (59,934,814) and Obama at 52.92% (69,456,897). The pertinent info is at the bottom of page 2.

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